Climate CPR Paper
by
The Professor
Introduction
The subject of this paper is climate change. The paper also addresses the consequences of climate change and government policies that should be implemented to address this issue. I will also discuss what actions a single person can take to address climate change.Climate change has the potential to affect the ability of the Earth to support life as we know it. At the least, it will have minor effects, but at worst it could alter climate zones, disrupt economic systems, and reduce the quality of life drastically. The effects of climate change, if it occurs, will last for hundreds of years. Because of this, it is a subject worth understanding for all [:(Cmnt by william prothero: This states the topic and the second paragraph tells why the subject is important. ):] .
Causes_of_Climate_Change
[:(Cmnt by william prothero: This topic could be very long. I have tried to cover only the main features of the climate system. ):] he earth's climate is determiined primarily by its distance from the sun and its atmosphere. Without the atmosphere, the earth's temperature would be 255K, or minus 18C. Water would be frozen in most places and life as we know it would not be able to exist. However, the atmosphere warms the surface to an average of 288K, or 15C.Changes in the atmosphere cause global and local climate variations. {link: c_GHFig6LabBk.jpg}Figure 1 shows a diagram, from the Oceanography Lab book, figure 6, Lab Section 6, illustrating the average effect of various phenomena that affect the climate. From this figure, we can see that, on the average, 30% of the sun's incident energy is reflected back to space. The other 70% is absorbed and warms the earth. This 70% is radiated back to space by the warm earth. The earth's temperature increases until the amount reflected and radiated back to space equals the incident solar radiation.
Because the energy balance is affected by the amount of solar energy reflected back to space, changes in ice/snow cover and vegetation will affect the earth's climate. For example, increasing the snow cover will reflect more energy back to space and contribute toward a lowering of the temperature.
The amount that the atmosphere warms the earth is affected by the concentration of greenhouse gases. The major greenhouse gases are: carbon dioxide (CO2, residence time ~100yrs), methane (CH4, residence time ~12yrs), nitrous oxide (N20, residence time ~ 100yrs), ozone (O3, residence time ~hours), and water (residence time ~ days). The strongest greenhouse gas is water, but it is generally believed that its concentration is not a direct effect of human activity. The residence times indicate how long the gas will remain in the atmosphere.
The greenhouse gases leave the atmosphere by being dissolved in the surface waters of the ocean, which eventually sink in the North Atlantic. The phenomenon where ocean currents carry dissolved gases and other constituents, as well as heat, is called the global ocean conveyor belt.
Another important factor that affects the climate is the clouds. The effect of high clouds is opposite to that of low clouds. High clouds reflect more solar energy back to space, while low clouds act as a blanket to keep the surface warmer. It is not certain what effect a warmer earth will have on the cloud cover.
Aerosols also affect the earth's climate. These are caused by volcanic eruptions and air pollution. For example, a dimming of the earth's sunlight, by 22%, has been observed over the past 50 years. This is thought to be due to increased global pollution (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4171591.stm).
Earth_Climate_History
The earth's climate history has been studied analyzing ice and sediment cores, tree rings. The longest term temperature data for the last 400,000yrs comes from ice and sediment cores at the Vostok site in Antarctica. {link: c_VolstokImage.jpg}Figure 2 shows the drilling rig and f{link: c_Temp400Kyrs.jpg}igure 3 shows the temperature and CO2 plot, from the analysis of the oxygen isotopes and trapped CO2 in this core. The current average temperature is shown as a solid horizontal line. Notice the temperature (blue line) has oscillated between 8 degrees cooler than present to short term peaks of 2 degrees warmer than present. It is interesting to note that most of the time, the temperature is significantly cooler than it is now.{link: c_Temp_20K.jpg}Figure 4 shows a temperature and CO2 concentration record for the last 20,000 years, a time period when the last ice age was ending. It clearly shows the warming, which begins about 18,000 yrs before now. Notice that during this entire 400K years time period, the temperature and CO2 records closely track each other.
{link: c_Temp1Kyr.jpg}Figure 5 shows the temperature history for the last 1,000 years. These data are from a variety of sources, including tree rings, ice cores, corals, and historical records. Notice the abrupt rise in temperature and CO2 during the last 200 years. {link: c_temp1880.jpg}Figure 6 shows a detailed plot of the temperature since 1880. [:(Cmnt by william prothero: The main data is the 400,000yr temp/co2 plot from the Vostok ice core. There are many, many other sources of data that agree with this, or that support the Vostok data. This means that the Vostok data are consistent, agree with other data, and can be trusted., ):]
Historical_Climate_Change
{link: c_temp1880.jpg}Figure 6 shows the global average temperature since 1880 and the New York temperature, the US Average, and global average since 1950 [:(Cmnt by william prothero: The main data are the temperature and CO2 data sincer 1880. Again, there are other data sources that show agreement and refine important details to help us understand the climate system. Of special note is the Scientific American article that shoots down the contrarians' claim that the sattellite data do not show global warming. ):] .These data are collected using ground based temperature measurements corrected for factors such as the "heat island" effect where expanding cities raise the local temperature. In recent times the data are collected by sattellite by measuring the infra-red radiation from the atmosphere. This has caused confusion because the temperature measurements of interest are of the troposphere, where most of the weather takes place. The correction for the interfering effect of radiation from the stratosphere has been very uncertain. The troposphere has showed very little or no warming trend. However, a news article in the Scientific American (May 6, 2004) discusses a study by Qiang Fu (University of Washington) where the tropospheric temperature is corrected for the effect of the stratosphere using another channel of radiation measured at the sattellite. The resultant temperature agrees with ground based measurements of about 0.2C per decade.
Note that the global average temperature has risen about 0.5 to 0.6 degrees C since 1880. The New York temperature varies about the US and global averages, which show a lot less fluctuation because of the averaging effect.
{link: c_CO21880.jpg}Figure 7 shows the CO2 rise since 1880. Notice that the more detailed Mauna Loa data that shows the seasonal effect of the breathing of the planet starts in 1958.
The two data plots show increasing temperature and CO2 concentrations. The close correspondence between temperature and CO2 suggests that CO2 is causing the temperature rise. This is supported further by the understanding (of atmospheric scientists) of the greenhouse effect of CO2 in the atmosphere.
In order to underscore the significance of this recent temperature rise, {link: c_400KyrRecord.jpg}figure 8 shows the 400,000 year temperature record, plotted with the current temperature, showing a precipitous rise during the last 50 years.
Climate_Change_Scenarios
There are two plausible scenarios for climate change. One is the slow warming of the planet due to increased CO2 in the atmosphere. The other is an abrupt cooling caused by a shift in the global heat energy conveyor belt, where the surface and deep ocean currents carry heat from surface to deep waters. This would be caused by a melting of the polar ice caps, and subsequent changes in the Gulf Stream, which carries warm water to the North Atlantic and warms Europe in the winter. [:(Cmnt by william prothero: There are many opinions on this subject. There are the "risk analyzers" who focus on the worst thing that could happen and urge us to be cautious, because of the enormous consequences, and there are the "denialists" who say that those who predict catastrophe are overstating their case and are simply liberals trying to get more funding, and hate the big energy companies anyway . Which side are you on? ):] [:(Cmnt by william prothero: Note: In addition to the to polar extremes, there are the rest of us who would like a serious consideration of this possible problem by our politicians. ):]The most unsettling discussion of climate change scenarios is contained in a pentagon-funded report by Schwartz and Randall (2003). They discuss consequences of the following scenario, which is plausible:
-- Annual average temperatures drop by up to 5 degrees Fahrenheit over Asia and North America and 6 degrees Fahrenheit in northern Europe ¥ Annual average temperatures increase by up to 4 degrees Fahrenheit in key areas throughout Australia, South America, and southern Africa.
-- Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centers in Europe and eastern North America.
-- Winter storms and winds intensify, amplifying the impacts of the changes. Western Europe and the North Pacific experience enhanced winds. (Schwartz and Randall, 2003)
Some of the geo-political consequences they predict are:
--Annual average temperatures drop by up to 5 degrees Fahrenheit over Asia and North America and 6 degrees Fahrenheit in northern Europe ¥ Annual average temperatures increase by up to 4 degrees Fahrenheit in key areas throughout Australia, South America, and southern Africa. '
-- Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centers in Europe and eastern North America.
--Winter storms and winds intensify, amplifying the impacts of the changes. Western Europe and the North Pacific experience enhanced winds. (Schwartz and Randall, 2003). These consequences could happen due to abrupt climate change, regardless of which of the above temperature change scenarios occurs.
In the broad sense, Schwartz and Randall suggest:
As global and local carrying capacities are reduced, tensions could mount around the world, leading to two fundamental strategies: defensive and offensive. Nations with the resources to do so may build virtual fortresses around their countries, preserving resources for themselves. Less fortunate nations especially those with ancient enmities with their neighbors, may initiate in struggles for access to food, clean water, or energy. Unlikely alliances could be formed as defense priorities shift and the goal is resources for survival rather than religion, ideology, or national honor.
A recent news article (http://news.ft.com/cms/s/4c7db6de-81b7-11d9-9e19-00000e2511c8.html, and Santa Barbara New Press, Feb. 18, 2005) summarizes a presentation by Dr. Tim Barnett of Scripps Institute of Oceanography, to the Association for the Advancement of Science February meeting in Washington. His data finds that the temperature of the ocean has risen 2/3 of a degree between 1969 and 1999, as predicted by global warming models. The ocean temperature averages out the variations that the atmosphere shows, so is a better indicator of global warming than air temperature averages. He and Dr. Ruth Curry, of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, estimate that about half of the fresh water needed to cut off the north Atlantic deep water circulation has already been melted from the Arctic ice caps.
Another effect of the melting of the ice caps is sea level rise. The Maldives, in the Indian Ocean would disappear, as would low-lying coastal areas. {link: c_flrda_5mRise.jpg}Figure 9 shows how Florida would look if the West Antarctic ice sheet melted and caused a seal level rise of 5 meters. Of course, if climate changes moves toward an ice age, ice would increase at the poles and sea level would drop.
A document posted at the National Academy web site (http://www4.nationalacademies.org/onpi/webextra.nsf/web/climate?OpenDocument) lists a number of possible climate change effects. These are:
1) regional changes in agriculture and forestry due to changes in precipitation and temperature.
2) changes in water supply and quality, good or bad
3) increased spread of infectious diseases
4) undesirable changes in ecosystems due to an inability to adapt quickly to environmental changes
If the climate changes, there will be winners and losers. There will be migration between inhospitable regions to those more hospitable. It would be ironic if the climate cooled and the migration of US citizens to Mexico became an issue of contention. Ecosystems will suffer because plants and animals will have difficulty migration between isolated natural habitats.
Policy_Recommendations
It is clear that the driving phenomenon in climate change is our CO2 emissions. Other pollutants should not be ignored. Two major developments have been initiated that address this issue. These are the Kyoto Protocol and carbon emissions trading. These will be discussed below. The United States government is resisting taking firm action to limit greenhouse emissions. This can only be countered by citizens informing each other and demanding, with their vote, that the US take action. Another way an individual can take action is to become involved in, or donate to, organizations that have formed to promote a pro-active US global warming policy [:(Cmnt by william prothero: What do you think about the Kyoto Protocol? Is it unfair, or is it a starting point. Should it be abandoned because it is imperfect? What other ideas do you have? ):] .The Kyoto Protocol was developed as an agreement between nations to limit CO2 emissions. The protocol requires all industrialized countries to reduce emissions of 6 greenhouse gases by 5% relative to 1997 levels.
It specifies that all parties must take steps including:
* design and implementation of climate change mitigation and adaptation programs
* preparation of a national inventory of emissions removals by carbon sinks
* promotion of climate friendly technology transfer
* fostering partnerships in research and observation of climate science, impacts and response strategies
(http://environment.about.com/od/kyotoprotocol/a/aa090402a.htm)
Here is a list of what nations must do to reach the targets:
* 8% emission cuts by Switzerland, most Central and East European states, and the EU (which will meet its target by distributing different rates among its member states.)
*7% emission cut by the US
* 6% emission cuts by Canada, Hungary, Japan, and Poland
* Russia, New Zealand, and Ukraine are to stabilize their emissions
* Norway may increase emissions by up to 1%
* Australia may increase emissions by up to 8%. Iceland may increase emissions up to 10%
(http://environment.about.com/od/kyotoprotocol/a/aa090402a.htm)
The Kyoto protocol has been ratified by the European Union, Czech Republic, Romania, Japan, Poland, New Zealand, and Canada. The US has not ratified it because President Bush argues that the science is not good enough to take the risk of damaging our economy. They also argue that it is not fair to the US because developing nations are not required to cut emissions, even though the US puts about 1/3 of the global CO2 emissions into the atmosphere.
Carbon emissions trading builds on free trade and the capitalistic system to promote emissions reductions. Each industry is allotted a certain amount of carbon emission. If the emissions are less than the allotted amount, the excess (credits) can be sold to others who may not be able to meet their allotments. This system encourages emissions reductions because these reductions can be sold as emission credits. This makes it possible for an industry to offset its costs for improvements that will increase efficiency and reduce carbon emissions. Apparently, it is working well in Europe.
References
Atmospheric Gases PBS Site:
Vostok Data:
Barnola, J. M., D. Raynaud, Y. S. Korotkevich and C. Lorius, 1987, Vostok ice core provides 160,000-year record of atmospheric CO2, Nature, 329, 408-414.
Rapid Climate Change
Grootes, P.M., Stuiver, M., White, J.W.C., Johnsen, S. and Jouzel, J., 1993, Comparison of oxygen isotope records from the GISP2 and GRIP Greenland ice cores, Nature 336, 552-554.
UK WeatherWorld. Paleoclimate FAQs: Temp histories.
http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/paleoclimate.htm#100,000years
CO2 since 1880
http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/biotrends/trends_climchange.html
Tim Barnett news article
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/4c7db6de-81b7-11d9-9e19-00000e2511c8.html
Santa Barbara New Press, Feb. 18, 2005
National Academies:
http://www4.nationalacademies.org/onpi/webextra.nsf/web/climate?OpenDocument
Kyoto Protocol:
(http://environment.about.com/od/kyotoprotocol/a/aa090402a.htm)
Figure 1. Diagram of atmospheric factors that influence the earth's climate. The numbers shown are averages over the entire globe and will vary at specific locations. {fig: c_GHFig6LabBk.jpg}
Figure 2. Drilling ice cores at the Vostok site in Antarctica. {fig: c_VolstokImage.jpg}
Figure 3. Temperature and CO2 concentrations from ice core data. {fig: c_Temp400Kyrs.jpg}
Figure 4. Temperature and CO2 record for the last 20,000 years. {fig: c_Temp_20K.jpg}
Figure 5. Temperature history and CO2 for the last 1,000 years. {fig: c_Temp1Kyr.jpg}
Figure 6. Annual mean temperature anomalies since 1880. The figure on the right shows the temperature changes in New York (red), the US mean (blue), and the global mean (green). On the average, they track pretty well, on the average. {fig: c_temp1880.jpg}
Figure 6. Annual mean temperature anomalies since 1880. The figure on the right shows the temperature changes in New York (red), the US mean (blue), and the global mean (green). On the average, they track pretty well, on the average. {fig: c_temp1880.jpg}
Figure 7. CO2 concenration in the atmosphere since 1880. {fig: c_CO21880.jpg}
Figure 8. Vostok temperature record, with global average for the last 200 years represented by the red line. Notice the precipitous rise in temperature near 0 years. {fig: c_400KyrRecord.jpg}